October witnessed a dramatic escalation of tensions in the South China Sea, revealing China’s increasingly assertive strategy. Two significant confrontations – one with Australia and another with the Philippines – unfolded alongside joint military exercises with Malaysia, highlighting a complex interplay of pressure and diplomacy.
The most alarming incident occurred near Thitu Island on October 12th. A Chinese Coast Guard vessel deliberately rammed a Philippine fisheries bureau ship, the BRP Datu Pagbuaya, and then unleashed water cannons just 1.6 nautical miles from the island. While the Philippine vessel sustained damage, thankfully no one was hurt.
Beijing defended its actions, claiming its Coast Guard “expelled” Philippine ships engaged in “illegal intrusion.” They downplayed the incident as a “slight collision,” while state media insisted the response was “lawful and necessary” to protect China’s sovereignty, issuing a stern warning against further Philippine activity.
Adding to the pressure, satellite imagery revealed China had deployed a new floating barrier at Scarborough Shoal, effectively blocking access to the lagoon. This move coincided with Chinese ships issuing radio warnings, demanding Philippine vessels avoid areas Beijing designates as an “environmental reserve.”
These actions aren’t isolated events, but part of a broader pattern of coercion. The Chinese Coast Guard and maritime militia routinely employ aggressive tactics – water cannons, blocking maneuvers, and dangerously close intercepts – to assert control over disputed waters. A collision between a CCG vessel and a Chinese Navy destroyer in August underscored the inherent risks of such behavior.
The reality is that the Philippine ships were operating within their own exclusive economic zone. Sandy Cay, the focal point of the October 12th incident, lies firmly within internationally recognized Philippine maritime territory. This fact only strengthened Manila’s resolve to defend its claims.
At the ASEAN Summit, President Marcos Jr. condemned “dangerous maneuvers” and coercive tactics used to interfere with legitimate Philippine activities, though he refrained from directly naming China. The international community responded with strong condemnation of Beijing’s aggression.
The United States reaffirmed its defense commitments to the Philippines, emphasizing that its treaty applies to armed attacks on Philippine vessels, including Coast Guard ships, throughout the South China Sea. Australia, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the European Union echoed this support, condemning China’s actions.
On October 19th, a separate incident unfolded involving Australia. A Chinese fighter jet released flares dangerously close to a Royal Australian Air Force P-8A Poseidon during routine maritime patrols near the Paracel Islands. The flares were deployed twice, creating a perilous situation for the Australian crew.
Australia’s Defense Minister labeled the incident “unsafe and unprofessional,” condemning it as a threat to personnel and equipment. Beijing countered by claiming its forces “drove away” the Australian aircraft, alleging it had illegally entered Chinese airspace.
Canberra maintained its patrols were lawful and consistent with international law, urging China to operate responsibly. This wasn’t an isolated occurrence; Chinese jets have repeatedly engaged in similar dangerous maneuvers with Australian surveillance aircraft throughout the year.
Underlying these confrontations is a complex web of overlapping territorial claims and competition for vast resources. The South China Sea is believed to hold an estimated 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, fueling regional tensions. China’s expansive claims, based on the controversial “nine-dash line,” were rejected by the 2016 Hague tribunal ruling.
Over the past decade, China has aggressively transformed reefs and shoals into heavily fortified military outposts, equipped with airstrips, radar stations, and missile batteries. This expansion challenges international law and freedom of navigation, prompting increased U.S. naval patrols and regional cooperation.
The United States is bolstering its defense cooperation with the Philippines and Australia. Task Force Philippines, a 60-member unit, was announced to enhance deterrence and interoperability across the South China Sea, expanding existing initiatives. Joint exercises, including Balikatan, are showcasing increasing integration.
For the first time, the U.S. Typhon missile system, capable of long-range strikes, was deployed to the Philippines. Sixteen nations participated in the drills, with both countries committing to over 500 military activities through 2026. U.S. Army operations in Northern Luzon have also expanded, reflecting concerns about potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
Australia is also strengthening its alliance with the U.S. and the UK, exemplified by the Geelong Treaty for the development of SSN-AUKUS nuclear submarines. Exercise Talisman Sabre, Australia’s largest-ever war drill, involved 35,000 troops from 19 countries and tested its new Precision Strike Missile.
By the end of 2025, increased U.S.-Australian naval exercises and New Zealand’s commitment to doubling its defense spending signal a unified allied front determined to counter China’s growing regional influence.
