A curious phenomenon has emerged in recent years, a noticeable decline in the number of young people identifying as non-binary or transgender. The shift, initially observed in data starting in 2023, has sparked debate and analysis among researchers and commentators alike.
Joe Rogan recently highlighted a potential connection between this trend and the change in ownership at the social media platform now known as X. He pointed to a coinciding decrease in self-identification as non-binary or transgender following Elon Musk’s acquisition of the platform.
Rogan’s suggestion centers on the idea that the shift in platform policy allowed for a more open and critical discussion surrounding gender identity. Previously constrained conversations, he argues, were unleashed, leading to a re-evaluation of perceptions and potentially influencing how young people understand and express their own identities.
Data from the Manhattan Institute’s Centre for Heterodox Social Science supports this observation. Their research reveals a sharp drop in both transgender and queer identification among Generation Z since 2023, a trend that has surprised many observers.
A large-scale survey conducted by the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression (FIRE) among over 60,000 US undergraduates in 2025 showed that only 3.6% identified as a gender other than male or female. This is a significant decrease from 5.2% in 2024 and 6.8% in both 2022 and 2023 – effectively halving the percentage in just two years.
The decline is particularly pronounced at elite institutions. Phillips Academy in Andover, Massachusetts, saw a dramatic fall from 9.2% identifying as neither male nor female in 2023 to just 3% this year. Brown University experienced a similar pattern, with a drop from 5% in 2022 and 2023 to 2.6% in 2025.
Rogan’s insight touches upon a core principle: the importance of free speech and open debate. The reluctance of some groups to allow open discussion on these sensitive topics suggests a concern that scrutiny and critical examination might alter prevailing narratives.
This resistance to open conversation extends to efforts to limit parental involvement in discussions about gender identity. The desire to control the narrative, some argue, stems from a fear that broader participation and diverse perspectives could challenge established viewpoints.
The data and observations suggest a complex interplay between social discourse, platform policies, and individual self-perception. The recent shift in identification rates warrants further investigation and a willingness to engage in honest, open dialogue.
